stoPET v1.0: a stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator forsimulation of climate change impacts - Peeref (2024)

Article Environmental Sciences

Impacts of climate change and evapotranspiration on shrinkage of Aral Sea

Shuangyan Huang, Xi Chen, Cun Chang, Tie Liu, Yue Huang, Chanjuan Zan, Xiaoting Ma, Philippe De Maeyer, Tim Van de Voorde

Summary: This study shows that the expansion of cropland is no longer the main factor driving the desiccation of the Aral Sea. Instead, changing climate and increasing evapotranspiration have accelerated the shrinkage of the sea.

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Biophysical impacts of earth greening can substantially mitigate regional land surface temperature warming

Yitao Li, Zhao-Liang Li, Hua Wu, Chenghu Zhou, Xiangyang Liu, Pei Leng, Peng Yang, Wenbin Wu, Ronglin Tang, Guo-Fei Shang, Lingling Ma

Summary: Vegetation greening has a unidirectional negative impact on radiometric surface temperature, with significant spatial and seasonal variability. Snow cover, vegetation greenness, and shortwave radiation are the main driving factors of this temperature response. Globally, the observed greening trend leads to a cooling effect that slows down a percentage of global warming, while regionally, it can offset a considerable portion of warming in India and China. These findings emphasize the importance of considering vegetation-related biophysical climate effects in local climate adaptation strategies.

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Comparing two weather generator-based downscaling tools for simulating storm intensification and its impacts on soil erosion under climate change

Xunchang (John) Zhang, Phillip R. R. Busteed, Jie Chen, Lifeng Yuan

Summary: This study compares two weather generator-based tools in simulating daily precipitation extremes and evaluates the response of surface runoff and soil loss to generated precipitation under different cropping and tillage systems. The results show that all data sources are capable of providing information on future storm intensification and it is recommended to use as many members as possible in model screening. There are no discernable differences between storm intensification options with each tool due to weaker signals of storm intensification projected for the study site. Simulated soil loss and surface runoff rates with one tool (GPCC) are significantly greater than those with the other tool (SYNTOR) due to the generation of more frequent and heavier storms by GPCC.

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

ArcticBeach v1.0: A physics-based parameterization of pan-Arctic coastline erosion

Rebecca Rolph, Pier Paul Overduin, Thomas Ravens, Hugues Lantuit, Moritz Langer

Summary: Studies have shown that climate change is intensifying Arctic coastal erosion, necessitating numerical models to understand its impact. ArcticBeach v1.0 is a potential starting point for Arctic erosion modeling that can be applied on different types of Arctic coastlines.

Article Environmental Sciences

Why the Effect of CO2 on Potential Evapotranspiration Estimation Should Be Considered in Future Climate

Jian Zhou, Shan Jiang, Buda Su, Jinlong Huang, Yanjun Wang, Mingjin Zhan, Cheng Jing, Tong Jiang

Summary: This study investigates the impact of CO2 on potential evapotranspiration (PET) in China and finds that considering CO2 leads to a decrease in PET and overall PET is projected to increase in the future. The modified Penman-Monteith (PM) method used in the study provides more accurate estimates of PET compared to the traditional PM method.

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Respective contributions of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to long-term changes in global drought duration and intensity

Ren Wang, Longhui Li, Lijuan Chen, Liang Ning, Linwang Yuan, Guonian Lu

Summary: Climate change has led to an increase in drought in most global land areas. The contributions of decreased precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration to long-term drought duration and intensity vary by region, but overall, changes in precipitation play a more significant role in the increase of long-term drought.

Article Engineering, Civil

A physically-based potential evapotranspiration model for global water availability projections

Ziwei Liu, Taihua Wang, Changming Li, Wencong Yang, Hanbo Yang

Summary: When the hydrological models and the fully-coupled climate model disagree, vegetation is found to be the cause of the divergence. A new potential evapotranspiration (EP) equation was proposed in this study to explicitly quantify the effects of vegetation on EP estimations. The results show that the new EP equation performs better in capturing long-term EP changes compared to conventional EP models.

Article Agronomy

Modeling the combined impacts of deficit irrigation, rising temperature and compost application on wheat yield and water productivity

Zheli Ding, Esmat F. Ali, Ahmed M. Elmahdy, Khaled E. Ragab, Mahmoud F. Seleiman, Ahmed M. S. Kheir

Summary: Limited water resources and climate change negatively impact food and water security in arid and semi-arid regions. Management of irrigation and compost can help address these challenges. Crop models are powerful tools for predicting grain yield and water productivity.

Article Engineering, Civil

Assessing future runoff changes with different potential evapotranspiration inputs based on multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections

Lijie Shi, Puyu Feng, Bin Wang, De Li Liu, Hong Zhang, Jiandong Liu, Qiang Yu

Summary: This study investigates the impacts of different potential evapotranspiration (ETp) inputs on runoff simulation and projection. The XAJ model is used to project runoff in the North Johnstone catchment, northeast Australia. The study finds that future climate scenarios will lead to a significant decrease in spring and winter runoff, mainly due to a decrease in rainfall. The uncertainty in runoff projection is primarily caused by global climate models (GCMs) and their interaction with different representative concentrative pathway (RCP) scenarios.

Article Agriculture, Multidisciplinary

Potential impacts of projected warming scenarios on winter wheat in the UK

Davide Cammarano, Bing Liu, Leilei Liu, Alexander C. Ruane, Yan Zhu

Summary: This study aimed to analyze the impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C scenarios on UK winter wheat through simulations, showing a potential increase in wheat yield by 2-8% under projected climate conditions. Farmers will need to take adaptation measures such as adjusting planting times and using climate-ready varieties to close the gap between future production and potential yield.

Article Engineering, Civil

Assessing future climate change impacts on groundwater recharge in Minnesota

Harsh Anurag, G-H Crystal Ng

Summary: The study investigated the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in Minnesota using climate models under different emissions scenarios. Despite projections of higher precipitation, overall recharge is expected to decline due to warming-induced evapotranspiration increases. However, soil moisture limitations in drier regions may help buffer the decrease in recharge.

Article Water Resources

Potential hydro-meteorological impacts over Burundi from climate change

M. Rocio Rivas-Lopez, Stefan Liersch, Christoph Menz, Stefan Lange, Fred F. Hattermann

Summary: The study found that with climate change, Burundi is experiencing an increase in annual and seasonal average temperatures, with increased precipitation in the north and decreased precipitation in the south. These changes in discharge have significant impacts on the risk of floods.

Review Neurosciences

Potential Impacts of Extreme Heat and Bushfires on Dementia

Taya L. Farugia, Carla Cuni-Lopez, Anthony R. White

Summary: Australia faces natural disasters and extreme weather conditions, with an increasing elderly population and limited research on their ability to cope with extreme heat and bushfires. Vulnerable communities, including those with dementia, are particularly at risk and there is a significant association between mental disorders and increased vulnerability to extreme heat. The paper explores the impact on individuals living with dementia in rural and metropolitan areas, recommending strategies for prevention and support services.

Article Environmental Sciences

Potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of Chinese ski resorts

Xin-Wu Xu, Shi-Jin Wang, Zhen-Yu Han

Summary: Chinese skiing tourism is developing rapidly, but it is vulnerable to the availability of snow resources and climate conditions. This study analyzed the spatial characteristics of snow resources, climate conditions, and ski resorts in China, and identified the potential impacts of climate change on ski resorts. It also proposed suggestions for assessing climate resources and spatial planning of ski resorts.

Article Water Resources

Impacts of climate change on crop growing season characteristics in Northern Ethiopia

Amdom Gebremedhin Berhe, Solomon Habtu Misgna, Girmay Gebresamuel Abraha, Amanuel Zenebe Abraha

Summary: Understanding the future impact of climate change on crop growing seasons is crucial for intervention planning and considering climate-related impacts. This study projected the future impact of climate change in the Tigray region using different climate models under two representative concentration paths. The results showed increasing rainfall but declining length of the growing period, as well as continuously rising temperatures, which can negatively affect crop growth and maturity. The findings have global implications for similar areas to develop adaptive and sustainable crop production strategies.

Article Development Studies

Climate services for the Greater Horn of Africa: interviews exploring practitioner perspectives from Kenya and beyond

Jacob M. Rigby, Michaelina Almaz Yohannis, Chris Preist, Michael Bliss Singer, Timothy M. Waema, Agnes N. Wausi, Katerina Michaelides

Summary: Climate and weather services play a crucial role in decision making in various sectors in the Greater Horn of Africa. This study interviewed practitioners working with climate, weather, and hydrological information in East Africa and identified a complex network of stakeholders in the climate services ecosystem. Trust and information suitability were found to be key issues in promoting the adoption of climate services. The study argues for a holistic evaluation of the interconnected climate services ecosystem to design better systems for the benefit of all stakeholders.

Article Biodiversity Conservation

Local groundwater decline exacerbates response of dryland riparian woodlands to climatic drought

Jared Williams, John C. Stella, Steven L. Voelker, Adam M. Lambert, Lissa M. Pelletier, John E. Drake, Jonathan M. Friedman, Dar A. Roberts, Michael Bliss Singer

Summary: This study analyzed riparian cottonwood stands along the largest remaining free-flowing river in Southern California and found that the rate of groundwater decline is the primary driver of drought stress for these woodlands. The trees were more sensitive to temperature at sites with faster groundwater decline. The study also identified a threshold of tolerance to groundwater decline at 0.5 m year(-1), beyond which drought stress becomes increasingly evident and severe.

Article Environmental Sciences

High resolution spatiotemporal patterns of flow at the landscape scale in montane non-perennial streams

Romy Sabathier, Michael Bliss Singer, John C. Stella, Dar A. Roberts, Kelly K. Caylor, Kristin L. Jaeger, Julian D. Olden

Summary: Intermittent and ephemeral streams in dryland environments are important habitats for diverse aquatic and terrestrial life. Understanding the availability of water and its response to external factors is crucial for predicting the impacts of climate change and human activities. This paper analyzes conductivity data from sensors distributed along streams in Arizona, providing insights into flow permanence and its response to seasonal rainfall.

Article Environmental Sciences

National-Scale Detection of Reservoir Impacts Through Hydrological Signatures

S. Salwey, G. Coxon, F. Pianosi, M. B. Singer, C. Hutton

Summary: Reservoirs are important for water supply and management, but they are often excluded or poorly represented in hydrological models due to a lack of open-access data. To address this issue, we developed hydrological signatures that can detect reservoir impacts on downstream flow using only downstream flow records. We applied these signatures to catchments in Great Britain and found that water abstractions from reservoirs cause deficits in the water balance, and pre-defined flow releases reduce variability in downstream flow. We also identified catchments significantly impacted by reservoirs and provided insights into local reservoir operations.

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A Lagrangian Analysis of the Sources of Rainfall Over the Horn of Africa Drylands

Akash Koppa, Jessica Keune, Dave A. MacLeod, Michael Singer, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Katerina Michaelides, Rafael Rosolem, George Otieno, Abebe Tadege, Diego G. Miralles

Summary: The Horn of Africa drylands are highly vulnerable to hydroclimatic extremes. The Arabian Sea and the southern Indian Ocean contribute about 80% of the rainfall, while land sources account for a much smaller proportion. Variability in the long and short rains is primarily driven by circulation patterns and thermodynamic processes, rather than changes in ocean evaporation.

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

GroMoPo: A Groundwater Model Portal for Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) Modeling

Sam Zipper, Kevin M. Befus, Robert Reinecke, Daniel Zamrsky, Tom Gleeson, Sacha Ruzzante, Kristen Jordan, Kyle Compare, Daniel Kretschmer, Mark Cuthbert, Anthony M. Castronova, Thorsten Wagener, Marc F. P. Bierkens