First Pitch: Mets would be wise to consider Braves-style extension for budding star (2024)

Not only do the Atlanta Braves have one of the best, if not the best roster in the majors, but they're built to remain at the top for years to come. With the exception of Max Fried and Marcell Ozuna, virtually every key member of their core is under team control through 2026. If that sounds unprecedented, that's because it is.

Alex Anthopoulos has done a masterful job of extending his players on deals that wind up being very team-friendly. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies are prime examples of that. Acuña and Albies both got long-term security with generational guaranteed wealth, and the Braves locked them in on substantially smaller numbers that they wouldn't have been able to had they waited.

Having their core locked in on such cheap extensions has allowed the Braves to field an absurdly talented roster with room to add, as they did over the offseason with the Chris Sale trade.

Other teams should take this page out of Atlanta's playbook. The New York Mets are one team in particular with one player, Francisco Alvarez, who they should give this kind of long-term extension to. Here are some reasons why it should happen right now.

The incentive Anthopoulos had to sign his players early was to get them on very team-friendly deals down the line. Acuña is making $17 million annually through the 2028 campaign. Albies is making $7 million annually through the 2027 campaign. What Alvarez would make remains to be seen, but the idea would be to pay him now, to get him for cheaper later.

One contract that the Mets can look at is the one Keibert Ruiz signed with the Nationals. Ruiz inked an eight-year extension worth $50 million that can top out at 10 years for $76 million if both of his club options are exercised. Alvarez would almost certainly cost more given the fact that he's both younger and better than Ruiz, but he wouldn't blow that out of the water with only 1.5 seasons of experience under his belt.

Let's say the Mets give him something like a nine-year deal that maxes out at $100 million if the club options are exercised. That'd bring Alvarez to his age 31 season, where he'd be right at the end of his prime. Would that not be incredibly worthwhile for the Mets?

Francisco Alvarez has already expressed a willingness to listen to extension offers

An extension offer wouldn't be coming out of left field, either. While nothing has come out about the Mets giving Alvarez an offer, Jon Heyman of the NY Post reported over the offseason that Alvarez would be willing to listen to an offer.

"The Mets haven’t broached the subject of an extension yet for Francisco Alvarez, but he’s thought willing to listen."

The Mets were a team trying to get its finances figured out over the offseason, but will have a ton of money come off the books after the 2024 campaign, mainly with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander's deals expiring. The Mets might be willing to explore something like this with that in mind.

Alvarez being open to a deal now presumably means he's open to taking a deal that might look like a discount down the line but ensures that he gets a life-changing payday right now before risking any sort of major injury. The Mets should try and extend him while he's open to listening.

This might seem crazy since he's only 22 years old with just 1.5 years of MLB experience, but Alvarez is already one of the most important pieces on this Mets team and one of the best catchers in the league.

Alvarez might not have hit for a very high average, but he was one of two catchers in MLB history to be 21 years old and hit at least 25 home runs. The only other catcher to do so is Johnny Bench.

Alvarez hit his 30th career home run in late June. Only two catchers reached 30 at a younger age than Alvarez.

He hit 25 home runs as a rookie and has taken his game to a whole other level this season. Alvarez did miss time due to injury this season, but has slashed .306/.372/.528 with four home runs and 23 RBI in 33 games so far in 2024.

His 157 WRC+ is good for 14th among all players with at least 120 plate appearances, better than the likes of Freddie Freeman, Rafael Devers, and Yordan Alvarez. It's the best mark of MLB catchers with at least 120 plate appearances overall.

Alvarez showed off his raw power in his rookie year, but has looked like a complete hitter in his sophom*ore season. He has cut his strikeout rate from 26.0 percent to 20.7 percent. His walk rate has increased from 8.0 percent to 9.9 percent. He has been rewarded lately being moved up to fifth in the order protecting Pete Alonso (and doing a very good job at it).

Francisco Alvarez is more than a strong hitting catcher

Alvarez is known mostly for his bat, but his glove has been equally as good if not more impressive in his short time in the majors.

The 22-year-old ranks in the 74th percentile in pitch framing according to Baseball Savant, which is well above average. He was in the 95th percentile last season, proving that he is an elite pitch-framer, which is crucial.

His throwing and blocking could use some work, but the Mets also pitch much better when Alvarez is behind the plate to the point where his pitch calling and game planning cannot be ignored.

Mets pitchers have a 3.02 ERA throwing to Alvarez, which is the third-best mark for any catcher who has been behind the plate for more than 1,000 plate appearances this season. Only Reese McGuire and J.T. Realmuto are ahead of him, and they operate with far superior pitching staffs.

The other catchers who have caught for this Mets team this season are Luis Torrens, Omar Narvaez, and Tomas Nido. Mets pitchers had a 4.31 ERA throwing to Narvaez before he was DFA'd. They have a 4.68 ERA throwing to Torrens. They had a 5.16 ERA throwing to Nido before he was DFA'd.

While there might be some luck involved there, it can't only be luck. The difference is stark, and cannot be ignored. Again, he's only 22 and has earned the respect of so many well-established pitchers like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Edwin Diaz, and Jose Quintana to name a few.

Let's say an Alvarez extension, for whatever reason, doesn't work out. Can the Mets not afford it anyway?

It's never ideal to be paying a player who isn't worth what they're paying, but the Mets are owned by Steve Cohen, the richest owner in the game. They've had the highest payroll in the game in each of the last two years and one of the three highest payrolls in each of Cohen's four full seasons in control.

This isn't the case of a small-market team that can only afford to spend a certain amount of money living and dying with a risk like this. This Mets team would be able to recover rather easily from a whiff.

Alvarez, a former top prospect, has flashed legitimate star potential if he isn't already a star right now. As long as Alvarez is willing, they have a chance to lock him in on a deal that can wind up looking awfully similar to those deals in Atlanta. There's only the slightest bit of risk, with the chance for enormous reward.